Polian The Draft Genius: 1998

Bill Polian is the best drafting GM in NFL history. No question there. He consistently gets steals from later rounds and great signings from undrafted free agency. In this 10 part series, we will look at the future Hall of Fame GM and his draft track record to show that he is, in fact, the greatest of all-time.


1998 was a huge draft for the Colts. They had the first pick, and Ryan Leaf and Peyton Manning were the two stars of this draft. Ryan Leaf was the larger-than-life personality from Washington State. Peyton Manning was the son of an NFL legend who kept to himself off the field. Polian was starting his first draft as the Colts GM. Let's look at the picks he made and how they turned out.


Rd. 1, Pick 1: Peyton Manning/QB/Tennessee


Next 3 Picks: Ryan Leaf/QB/Washington State, Andre Wadsworth/DE/Florida State, Charles Woodson/CB/Michigan


Looking Back: We were so close to being stuck in the top 5 of the draft for 11 years. There wouldn't be a Super Bowl XLI banner hanging anywhere close to Indianapolis. Hell, there may not even be an NFL team in Indianapolis if Polian would have taken Ryan Leaf, the bust of all busts. Peyton Manning is going to end his career with every notable passing record and with multiple Super Bowl victories. Ryan Leaf is the golf coach at West Texas A&M. What a relief...


Rd. 2, Pick 32: Jerome Pathon/WR/Washington


Next 3 Picks: Corey Chavous/S/Vanderbilt, Jacquez Green/WR/Florida, Tony Parrish/S/Washington


Looking Back: Could have done better. Pathon had two 50 reception seasons with the Colts even though he only played 3 years with the team. He was a mediocre kick returner, only getting one return over 40 yards in 3 seasons with the Colts. He was a decent slot receiver for the young Colts offense of the late 90s, but Chavous and Flozell Adams, two future Pro Bowlers taken within the next 10 picks, would have been much better options.


Rd. 3 Pick 71: E.G. Green/WR/Florida State


Next 3 Picks: Jeremiah Trotter/LB/Stephen F. Austin, Mitch Marrow/DT/Penn, Jammi German/WR/Miami


Looking Back: Can you tell Polian wanted to get the offense rolling? Green was not the best choice right there. It's a good thing Polian drafted Peyton, or else this draft would be left off of his track record. Green played 3 seasons in the NFL, all with the Colts. He only scored 2 touchdowns and never caught more than 25 passes. Hines Ward was the best receiver taken in the third round after the Colts.


Rd. 4 Pick 93: Steve McKinney/C/Texas A&M


Next 3 Picks: Alonzo Mayes/TE/Oklahoma State, Michael Pittman/RB/Fresno State, Az-Zahir Hakim/WR/San Diego State


Looking Back: Finally a strong pick here. McKinney was a solid guard for the Colts for 4 seasons. He helped keep Peyton Manning standing up, which was helpful in his quick development. McKinney is still playing in the NFL today, unlike Green and Pathon.


Rd. 5 Pick 135: Antony Jordan/LB/Vanderbilt


Next 3 Picks: Jerry Jenson/LB/Washington, Jason Simmons/DB/Arizona State, Oliver Ross/OT/Iowa State


Looking Back: Not much to say here. Jordan doesn't have a Wikipedia page and pro-football-reference.com doesn't have his stats. Of course, with the talent left in the draft, this isn't a horrible pick.


Rd. 7 Pick 190: Aaron Taylor/C/Nebraska


Next 3 Picks: David Terrell/DB/UTEP, Alvis Whitted/WR/North Carolina State, Phil Savoy/WR/Colorado


Looking Back: Taylor did not play a game with the Colts, but he had a minorly successful career with the Packers and Chargers that lasted for 5 years. There were no Pro Bowlers left, so the Colts didn't miss out on much.

Rd. 7 Pick 231: Corey Gaines/S/Tennessee


Next 3 Picks: Moses Moreno/QB/Colorado State, Ron James/FB/Miami, Kio Sanford/WR/Kentucky


Looking Back: Gaines doesn't have a Wikipedia page or a pro-football-reference.com page. That pretty much explains this pick.


Grade: I give the Colts a B for this draft. Sure, 5 picks were crap, but the Peyton pick at least has to give this a B, and McKinney solidifies this grade. If this draft looks mediocre to you, remember this. Ryan Leaf could have worn a Colts jersey. Think of how frightening this image is.

That is a horrifyingly real picture from deadspin.com. It was probably taken at a photoshoot so there could be pictures to market immediately after the draft. I should have warned you guys about the gruesome image above. Thank Polian for this not happening.

A Look Forward to 2008: Quarterbacks

Quarterback. It's been a position of no need for the Colts since 1998. There haven't been QB races in training camp or injuries to worry about. Peyton Manning's backups are seen as often as Ryan Leaf or Jeff George. However, Peyton does not have more than 10 years left, and that is being generous. If there would be a problem with Peyton, who would step up? Well, here is a rundown of the quarterback position for the Indianapolis Colts.

Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning is entering his 11th season in the NFL and on the Indianapolis Colts. Manning has never missed a start in his NFL career, and he has only missed one play because of injury. Over his career, Peyton has put up some of the top numbers of the decade, broken multiple records, and won multiple awards. Manning has been to 8 Pro Bowls, has been All-Pro 6 times, MVP twice, and the Pro Bowl MVP and Super Bowl MVP once.

Peyton Manning is coming off of a great season when you look at whom he had. He was missing Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez for a large portion of the season, and Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, and Ben Utecht also missed games this year. Now, Peyton will have his full arsenal and is looking to lead the Colts offense back to the top of the NFL rankings.

Last year, the Colts had 4 losses with Peyton playing 4 quarters in three of them. Those three games were against teams who have a 3-4 defense. In those games, Peyton threw 9 interceptions and had a 63% completion percentage. This season, the Colts play four teams who have some sort of a 3-4 defense: The Browns, Steelers, Patriots, and Chargers. Last year, the Browns defense was inept, and they didn't do much to change that. The Steelers with Mike Tomlin are transitioning to a 4-3 Tampa 2 defense, but they still have players who were drafted and signed for the 3-4 defense. The Patriots defense is still old, but they did draft multiple defensive players. The Chargers defense did not change at all this offseason.

The Colts play 3 games against top 5 defenses (Steelers, Patriots, Chargers), 5 more games against defenses ranked 6-10 (Titans x2, Jaguars x2, Packers), 1 defense ranked 11-15 (Vikings), 1 ranked 16-20 (Bears), 5 against defenses ranked 21-25 (Texans x2, Browns, Ravens, Bengals), and 1 game against the league's worst defense (Lions). The Colts have a tough schedule, but the passing defenses for these teams are not as good, as only the Steelers, Patriots, and Titans have top 10 pass defenses. The Lions, Bengals, Vikings, Bears, Ravens, Browns, and Texans all have pass defenses ranked 20th or lower.
My Stat Prediction for Manning: 66.4% completion percentage, 35 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions, 17 sacks, 4305 passing yards, 104.5 passer Rating

Jim SorgiJim Sorgi has been the resident bench warmer for the Colts since 2004. However, his job is in jeopardy. The Colts are not happy about his performance last year in the Tennessee game. This year will be his first year in a while when his job is truly in jeopardy. As you can see by the picture above, he has even picked up a second job as a Maytag repairman just in case he gets cut.
Sorgi last year had a 68.3 passer rating in the Tennessee game. Previous to Sorgi coming in, Manning was tearing apart that defense. Sure, Sorgi was throwing to Devin Aromashodu and Craphonso Thorpe, but could he really keep this team in the playoff hunt if Manning got hurt? I didn't think so. The Colts are going to give Josh Betts and Adam Tafralis a chance, and they could try to sign or trade for someone else. Chris Simms could be a possible trade option. The only decent free agents left are Dante Culpepper and Kelly Holcomb. I think Sorgi will have to play very well this preseason to keep his job. Adam Tafralis could get the job, and Betts has as much experience in the system as Sorgi.

Chance of Keeping Job: 50%

Stats If He Does Keep Job: 53.3% completion percentage, 0 touchdown passes, 1 interception, 2 sacks, 102 passing yards, 46.8 passer rating

Josh Betts

Betts has never played in a regular season NFL game. Not once. However, he has had that number 9 jersey since 2006, when he was first signed as an undrafted free agent and has been cut and signed to the practice squad twice. He has been a preseason player since he left Miami of Ohio, where he is second on the career list for pass completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. In the 2007 preseason, he had 3 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 356 passing yards, and a 60% completion percentage against the Cowboys, Bears, and Bengals.

Chance of Making Roster: 20%
Stats If He Does Make The Roster: 46% completion percentage, 0 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 142 passing yards, 0 sacks, 60.6 passer rating

Adam Tafralis

The Colts signed an undrafted free agent out of San Jose State, and he has a great chance of making the roster. Adam Tafralis had a great junior and senior year for the Spartans. Last year, he threw 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The year before that he threw 21 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Lack of competition is the obvious concern, but last year he played great against Kansas State, and the year before that he destroyed the Washington defense. Tafralis also has pretty good legs and ran for 405 yards in the past two years. Tafralis has a quick delivery, but his lack of height is a problem. I think he should be Peyton's backup for 2008.

Chance of Making Roster: 20%
Stats If He Does Make Roster: 60% completion percentage, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 180 yards, 74.3 passer rating

If I was Dungy, my QB roster would look like this

53 man
#18 Peyton Manning
#15 Adam Tafralis

Practice Squad
#12 Jim Sorgi

Colts in Canton?

Since the Hall of Fame committee decided who would get in (congrats to Art Monk, Darrell Green, Andre Tippett, Fred Dean, Emmitt Thomas, and Gary Zimmerman), it brought up discussion of who will get in later on in the future. The Colts are one of the most talented teams in the league, and it looks like they will have many future Hall of Famers. Eric Dickerson is the only Indianapolis Colt in the Hall of Fame, but he will be joined by many. Who will it be? Well, let's just see what my elaborate star system says.

Here's the system. Six stars are locks. If they retired today, they would be in for sure. Five stars are a few improvements in a statistical categories, but they will definitely get in barring injuries or trouble with the law. Four stars have had a great career, but need to have very solid years for the rest of his career. Three stars have to step it up and become Pro Bowlers for the majority of the rest of his career. After I rank the veterans, I will do the rankings for the young players. I will just use "In" and "On the Bubble" to measure their chances.

****** (6): Peyton Manning, Adam Vinatieri, Marvin Harrison, Tony Dungy- Peyton Manning has played 10 years. He is averaging more than 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns a season. If he plays eight more years as he intends, he will definitely break every notable passing record. He's a lock even if he retires today. Adam Vinatieri has won 2 Super Bowls on his feet. He is the most clutch kicker in NFL history, and he has been a starter on 5 Super Bowl teams, an amazing stat. He'll get in without a doubt.

Marvin Harrison may end his career coming close or breaking some of Jerry Rice's records. He's been very consistent over his long career, and he hasn't had many injuries until this past year. If his knee can recover, he will add onto his illustrious career. Dungy is the best regular season coach of the 21st century. He has led the Colts to 6 straight playoff births and 5 straight AFC South titles and 12 win seasons. Dungy added a Super Bowl ring to his resume, assuring him of being a Hall of Famer. Being the first black head coach to win a Super Bowl didn't hurt either.

***** (5): Dwight Freeney & Reggie Wayne: Freeney and Wayne are two draft picks that make Bill Polian a genius. Many of the Colts starters have been drafted on the second day or even signed as an undrafted rookie, but these two first-rounders have lived up to their pick. Freeney gets consistent pressure on the QB, and he normally hurries the QB into bad throws. Reggie Wayne came on strong when Marvin Harrison got hurt, and he only needs three or four more good years (1000 yards & 8 touchdowns) to become a lock.

**** (4): Bob Sanders, Jeff Saturday, Dallas Clark: Bob Sanders is the superstar, Clark is the X-factor on offense, and Jeff Saturday is the superstar offensive lineman. Sanders has had injury problems, but it is hard to deny that he does the most with less. He is under 6 feet, I tower over him, but he could kill me with one spear tackle. He won the Defensive Player of the Year last year, and if he can stay healthy, there's a good shot he can win it again. Jeff Saturday has made the All-Pro team 3 straight years, and he anchors the line. Dallas Clark had 11 touchdown catches this year, and when he doesn't drop balls, he is making big plays.

*** (3): Gary Brackett, Robert Mathis, Anthony McFarland: Gary Brackett is the leader of the defense, and he has had 3 good years, but he needs to be a Pro Bowler and have 110 tackles and 2 interceptions for the rest of his career. Mathis is very good, but he has been living in the shadow of Dwight Freeney and does not get much recognition. Booger McFarland's injury hurt his chances, but he has been a solid lineman and has been on 2 Super Bowl-winning teams.

Since the young players have not played enough to be considered, I will base it on the pace they have started at. These players have 2 or 3 years experience.

In: Joseph Addai & Antoine Bethea-Addai has 2842 yards from scrimmage and 23 total touchdowns. He is definitely on a good pace. Bethea will play in his first Pro Bowl this year, and he is a great ball-hawking safety. He's compiled 5 interceptions and 12 batted balls over his two years.

Bubble: Marlin Jackson & Kelvin Hayden-It's hard to separate the two. They both play the same style and have the same role in the defense. If one gets in, the other will. Right now, they will need to improve to become Pro Bowlers, but they have been very good, especially in big games.

I may have overshot some of these, but it is very easy to get into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Hopefully I can come back to this in 15 years and see that all of these guys are in the Hall of Fame. Probably not, but a man can dream can't he?

Now, the Real Season Starts

The Colts are heading into their big playoff matchup against the San Diego Chargers. The Colts and Chargers did play in Week 10, but the situation is much different from that game. Here is what has changed over the past nine weeks.

~The Colts are not coming off of a tough game against New England Patriots. This time, the Colts have two weeks of rest.
~In this game, the Colts will have future Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison, touchdown machine Dallas Clark, rookie stud Tony Ugoh, veteran lineman Ryan Diem, quality run blocker Charlie Johnson, breakout linebackers Tyjuan Hagler and Freddie Keiaho, and defensive tackle Raheem Brock.
~Phillip Rivers' best target Antonio Gates will most likely miss the game, and even if he plays, he will not be at full strength.
~The Colts are now more prepared for Darren Sproles in the return game.
~This game happens to be in the RCA Dome, so the crowd is pro-Colts, and there will not be rain.

The Colts are in line to win this; however, you can't overlook any opponent. The 3-4 defense has had success against the Colts, especially in the playoffs. New England beat them in 2003 and 2004. Pittsburgh knocked them off in 2005. Last year, their closest game was against the Patriots. Now, they can reverse the pattern. All they have to do is win.

Starting Lineups

Colts
QB-Peyton Manning
RB-Joseph Addai
HB-Ben Utecht
WR-Reggie Wayne
WR-Marvin Harrison
TE-Dallas Clark
OT-Ryan Diem
OG-Jake Scott
C-Jeff Saturday
OG-Ryan Lilja
OT-Tony Ugoh

DE-Josh Thomas
DT-Ed Johnson
DT-Raheem Brock
DE-Robert Mathis
OLB-Tyjuan Hagler
MLB-Gary Brackett
OLB-Freddie Keiaho
CB-Kelvin Hayden
FS-Antoine Bethea
SS-Bob Sanders
CB-Marlin Jackson

K-Adam Vinatieri
P-Hunter Smith
LS-Justin Snow
H-Hunter Smith
RS-TJ Rushing

Chargers
QB-Phillip Rivers
RB-LaDanian Tomlinson
FB-Lorenzo Neal
WR-Vincent Jackson
WR-Chris Chambers
TE-Brandon Manumaleuna
OT-Marcus McNeill
OG-Kris Dielman
C-Nick Hardwick
OG-Mike Goff
OT-Jeromey Clary

DE-Luis Castillo
NT-Jamal Williams
DE-Igor Olshansky
OLB-Shawne Merriman
ILB-Matt Wilhelm
ILB-Stephen Cooper
OLB-Shaun Phillips
CB-Antonio Cromartie
FS-Marlon McCree
SS-Clinton Hart
CB-Quentin Jammer

K-Nate Kaeding
P-Mike Scrifes
LS-David Binn
H-Mike Scrifes
RS-Darren Sproles

The X-factors

Colts
Tony Ugoh, OT: Ugoh is in his first game against the 3-4 defense. In this scheme, he will be relied upon to stop the blitzing outside linebackers, in this case sack artists Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips. Ugoh is a very mobile offensive tackle, much more mobile than Michael Toudouze, the backup who played in Ugoh's place against the Chargers. If the linebackers cannot get consistent pressure on Peyton Manning, he will be able to find holes in the Chargers secondary.

Chargers
Chris Chambers, WR: The Chargers will not have Antonio Gates for this game. In my opinion, this shouldn't make a huge difference in the passing game. The Colts linebackers are fast enough to cover a tight end, and tight ends rarely have success against the Colts. However, the Colts are definitely going to focus on the run this game. There will be eight men in the box for almost the entire game trying to stop LaDanian Tomlinson. This means that Chris Chambers will have single coverage against Marlin Jackson. Chambers needs to get separation from Jackson and the Colts' secondary in general. Jackson, Sanders, Bethea, and Hayden are the hardest-hitting secondary in the league. If Chambers gets rattled, this could be a long day for the San Diego offense.

Key Matchups

When the Colts have the ball
Peyton Manning versus Antonio Cromartie: This is battle number two for the Pro Bowlers. Last time, Antonio Cromartie intercepted three passes, including a one-handed circus catch that is now a Youtube legend. Now, Peyton will have Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez. Cromartie will have to play lock down defense on Reggie Wayne to keep him out of the game. If Wayne gets going, this game will be O-V-E-R.

When the Chargers have the ball
Bob Sanders versus LaDanian Tomlinson: Did you know LaDanian Tomlinson wears a tinted mask so he never has to look Bob Sanders in the eyes? Not really, but yeah. This week, LT has to look him in the eyes, since he will be coming after him. Although his name is awesome, Brandon Manumaleuna does not command the safeties' attention. Sanders will pretty much be a fourth linebacker this week. If they can stop the run game, there will be no way the Super Chargers can move the ball.

Head-to-Head matchups

Colts pass offense versus Chargers pass defense: The Chargers have the advantage here. Even though I think Peyton will bounce back, the Chargers dominated him last time. I can't give the Colts the benefit of the doubt.

Colts run offense versus Chargers run defense: I will give it to the Colts. Joseph Addai has been injured all year. If these two weeks can heal him, then the Chargers are in trouble. The inside linebackers and safeties are just not good enough to stop the run.

Colts pass defense versus Chargers pass offense: Obviously, the Colts. The Colts pass defense is crazy good. It's the best in the league. The corners hit hard and aren't afraid to put themselves in danger for a big hit. The linebackers are very fast, and Gary Brackett is the best linebacker in pass coverage.

Colts run defense versus Chargers run offense: I will go with the Chargers. The Chargers have the best running back in the league. However, he is very inconsistent. The Colts are just a year off from having one of the worst run defenses in NFL history. This is closer than it appears, however. Sanders has been great in run defense, and LaDanian Tomlinson did nothing last week besides score a touchdown and show his awesome running sideways skills.

My Homer Prediction
Colts 24 Chargers 7: Peyton Manning will have three touchdown passes, all to Marvin Harrison. LaDanian Tomlinson will have 78 yards and a touchdown run, but Phillip Rivers will throw three interceptions and lose a fumble. Joseph Addai and Reggie Wayne will each lose a fumble as well.

Some other pro-Colts tidbits

~Tony Dungy may step down. Again. This happens every year. I was sure that last year was his last year. At the beginning of this year, I knew it was his last year. Now that I am looking it in the eye, it's sad. He's the biggest coach in this city since Slick Leonard. It would be sad if the Colts lost a legend like that. However, I could see him take an advisory role in the front office. Jim Caldwell would most likely be his successor, but don't count out Peyton Manning if player-coaches is allowed like it is in the NBA. He's already the offensive coordinator. I would love to see Peyton running practice and taking snaps at the same time. Bill Cowher and Pete Carroll would also be looked at. If those happen, I will be disgruntled until they led the Colts to a Super Bowl.

~TJ Rushing and Tim Jennings have been the only players to miss practice this week due to an injury (Bob Sanders does not practice on Thursday). For the most of the year, the injury list has been a novelette. Now it's a returner who ate a bad hot dog and a nickelback who has had a concussion for a long time. It feels like the first week of the year. Knock on wood that this continues for the remainder of the postseason, and all of the Colts will be healthy enough to lift the Lombardi Trophy in Glendale.

~The Colts have 17 rookies on the roster and the IR, 12 on defense. I guess the draft and free agency don't equal winning, huh?

~Bob Sanders won Defensive Player of the Year. It's only a matter of time before he is elected Overlord of Indiana. If they do run a ballot for that. He's winning, and he's got my vote.

~This could be the last game in the RCA Dome, and more importantly, the last time fans will be able to leave through the real doors (not the revolving doors Bob Sanders slams) and be thrown out almost to the railing. Good times. Good, good times.

~The Colts are not the only team playing this weekend. The Giants are playing the Cowboys, where the three days of vacation with Jessica Simpson and Jason Witten (Mr. Third Wheel!) will surely affect the way Tony Romo throws a football. The Packers and Seahawks are playing in the *Yawn, falls asleep* Bowl. The Jaguars and Patriots are playing in the Teams That Annoy Me Bowl.

Remember, tune into the Colts-Chargers game at 1:00 PM Sunday on CBS, being broadcast by Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf. Also, do not forget: Bob Sanders pities Mr. T.

~

He's Back!!!

For most of the Colts' season, they have been out of the national media. They haven't been chasing an undefeated season. They haven't had a player with an outburst or controversy. Yesterday, that changed with some great news about Marvin Harrison.

Marvin Harrison has been a Colt since 1996 and before this year, had only missed 3 games all year long. Against the Broncos, the usually consistent Harrison went down with a bruised knee on a freak accident. When Joseph Addai ran to the right, he was tackled right next to Harrison, who was blocking for the second-year running back. When Addai went down, he landed on Harrison's knee. After seeing the highlights, the outlook was not good. He went down awkwardly and looked to be in a lot of pain. However, the bruised knee was much better than what most would have thought. Everyone would have assumed that a bruise couldn't keep Harrison out too long, but that was not the case.

Harrison sat out the next game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After the bye week, Harrison made an appearance against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It appeared that his knee injury was gone, but something must have gone wrong. Nine weeks went by. There was speculation that the injury was much worse, and he may never put on a Colts uniform again. Colts fans were ready to move on with this season. Now, after two days of full practices, Marvin is ready to play in the regular season finale against the Tennessee Titans.

Marvin Harrison is the greatest receiver in Colts history. He is a definite first ballot Hall of Famer. He may not make the biggest impact on the field, but the Colts need another target. With Harrison back for the playoffs, Peyton Manning now has his favorite receiver back in time to play the stingy defense they are bound to face in the AFC Divisional Round. They are either going to play San Diego, Pittsburgh, or Jacksonville. For those teams, they need everyone they can get.

With Marvin in the game, the Colts do not have to use Dallas Clark in the slot like they did last year in the playoffs and for most of this year. With Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark will now be covered mainly by linebackers. As he has proved time and time again, linebackers can't cut it against him. Work in Ben Utecht, Bryan Fletcher, and Joseph Addai in the passing game, and they are right up there with the Patriots.

What will this mean in the playoffs? This changes everything for the Colts offense and the opponent's defense. The Colts now have three wide receivers that Peyton has a strong connection with. As he proved in the San Diego game, backup receivers do not work well with Peyton. Craphonso Thorpe and Devin Aromashodu are not going to cut it with number 18. Marvin Harrison and Peyton Manning are the greatest QB-WR duo in the history of the NFL. Harrison coming back changes the entire playoff landscape.

Sit 'Em or Start 'Em?

The Colts have locked up the division and bye week. This Tennessee game only matters to the Titans. If the Colts lose, bummer. If they win, great. The Colts do not need this game. However, it will be important to keep everyone healthy and rested for the playoff game. This will involve sitting players at the right time and playing others in the right places. This is how I would run this team if I were Coach Dungy.

Peyton Manning has been the key to this team's success over the past 10 years. He is already fourth in touchdown passes for a career, and he will break almost every major passing record over the next seven or eight years. They cannot risk him getting injured. Peyton should play the entire first quarter and maybe the first series in the second. In week 2, the Titans got good pressure on Peyton. The Colts can't risk him going down. If he plays the first quarter, the Colts should be able to score 14 points which may be enough to stay in this game.

Joseph Addai should not get more than five carries. Addai is getting banged up badly. He appeared to hurt his ankle against Houston to go along with a back and shoulder injury. Kenton Keith should be able to do well enough to keep the Colts in this game.

For the receivers, Wayne should play the whole game. He is a very safe player like most Colts receivers. He does not take big hits when he can help it. His chances of getting injured should not be very high. Gonzalez can play in some places, but he did bruise his foot last week. Maybe 15 snaps for him. He is inexperienced. I would also like to see a Marvin Harrison appearance, even if it is only for one snap.

Dallas Clark should play the entire game. I would, however, avoid sending him over the middle. He seems to be getting hit harder than any other Colt. He has to play in the playoff game. Ben Utecht has been getting banged up the past two weeks. No need to play him. Bryan Fletcher should get good playing time against Tennessee.

The offensive line should get regular playing time. No one is truly hurt besides Ryan Diem, but he will probably not play at all. The offensive line needs to protect whomever is playing. They can't let anyone get injured.

The defensive line should be the same as it has been over the past two weeks. Robert Mathis and Raheem Brock can have another week to rest their injuries. Keyunta Dawson, Dan Klecko, and Quinn Pitcock will be able to get some well needed experience. Dawson and Pitcock are both rookies, so any experience is good.

The linebackers should play like it was a regular game. Tyjuan Hagler, Rocky Boiman, Clint Session, Freddie Keaiho, and Gary Brackett all should get their normal playing time. They do not have any injuries, and no one should expect them to get injured.

The defensive backs will also stay the same as last week. Antoine Bethea should not play. He is too vital to this secondary for him to miss a game against a good quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger or David Garrard. Everyone else, however, should get good playing time.

Overall, the offensive stars should see less snaps than they would on a normal game. This Colts defense should be able to shut down a bad Tennessee offense. The offense needs to score around 24 points to win. Even with the backups in, that is more than likely. This strategy should be able to keep the stars healthy and clicking for their playoff game most likely against Pittsburgh or San Diego.

Colts-Raiders Preview & Prediction

A year has passed, and not much has changed for these two NFL franchises. The Oakland Raiders are still a laughingstock, and the Colts are still dominant. However, the Raiders aren't everyone's favorite laughingstock. That pseudo-honor goes to the Miami Dolphins. The Colts are also not THE dominant team. That's the undefeated New England Patriots. Randy Moss and Cato June are not with their former teams, and for some, it's noticable. There are about as many JaMarcus Russell sightings in Oakland as there were last year, and the Colts' defense still goes by 'Bob Sanders and those other 10 guys.' Not much has changed for these two franchises, and the game score will show that.

Key Matchups

Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell v. Colts Secondary
The Raiders are probably going to give JaMarcus Russell his first serious look at the playing field in his NFL career. Of course, he gets the honor of facing the leagues best pass defense. Antoine Bethea or not, this secondary is dominant. Bob Sanders is one of the top safeties in the league. Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden punish receivers with their hard hits. If the Colts backup defensive line can get pressure on the QB, Russell may have a tough day.

Colts WR Reggie Wayne v. Raiders CB Nnamdi Asomugha
This is a battle of greats. Without Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning has been looking to Reggie Wayne more often, and his stats show it. Wayne has been one of the top receivers in the league and is a great deep play threat. However, he isn't facing a pushover in Asomugha. Asomugha was on All-Pro last year with good reason. He dominated with 8 interceptions and 19 passes deflected. This year, his stats are less prominent, but that may have to do with the Raiders run defense that disappeared after a good 2006. Watch out for this matchup. It may decide if Jim Sorgi comes into the game in the third quarter or in the fourth quarter.

Key Players

Bob Sanders
Sanders is all over the field. Justin Fargas has been one of the best backs in the league this year. If Sanders can shut down Fargas, then the pressure will be on Josh McCown and JaMarcus Russell to make plays.

Derrick Burgess
The Colts' offensive line is banged up. Burgess will need to get pressure on the QB to keep the Colts' out of the endzone.

My Prediction
45-14 Colts

Right now, the game has started and it is tied, but the Colts are driving. My crappy TV keeps on cutting out. I'm going downstairs.