Looking Forward to 2008: Running Backs

The Running back position was a bit of a concern coming into this offseason. Joseph Addai struggled big time at the end of the year, and Kenton Keith got arrested. However, the Colts have completely changed that around, and now running back may be the best position on the roster. Here is the rundown on the running back position for the 2008 Indianapolis Colts

Joseph Addai

Addai is coming off of a Pro Bowl year where he started out as an elite running back and ended as a mediocre one. After his amazing game against the Patriots, he faltered due to injuries on the offensive line and wear and tear on the body. However, now he has a great supporting cast around him, and he is ready to destroy the competition.

Joseph Addai had 704 yards in his first 7 games. In the last 8, he had 368. The teams he played against in the second half were not much better than the ones the Colts played in the first half. Addai is one of the most talented backs in the league with a perfect combination of power and speed. That goes well with his pass catching ability and goal line running.

Addai took 58% of the team's carries. That is too much for a player who has never been the main back. For a good comparison of what should be expected of the Colts rushing game next year, look no further than the Minnesota Vikings.

Adrian Peterson took 48% of the team's total caries. Chester Taylor took 31%. That has to be the Colts. Give Joseph Addai 48% of the carries and give Dominic Rhodes 31%. Mike Hart can take the other 21% or split it with Luke Lawton or Kenton Keith. With this carry split, this is what I expect Joseph Addai's stats to look like.

1064 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns, 426 receiving yards, 37 receptions, 1 receiving touchdown

Dominic Rhodes

Yes, he is back, and I could not be more excited. I will admit it. I was not a Dominic Rhodes fan at all when he played here. However, it was unnatural for him not to be in a Colts uniform last year. Part of the team was missing when he was gone. Now, he is entering his prime, and this will be his best year of his career.

Dominic Rhodes will make the roster this year. There is no doubt in my mind. The media and fans have been assuming that he is involved in the running back competition. He's not. Rhodes is going to play second-fiddle to Addai, like he did in the 2007 playoffs. I expect Rhodes to put up similar numbers to his playoff stats.

Rhodes, the hero of Super Bowl XLI, is getting the veteran's minimum, and he will earn every penny. Rhodes will be great as a change of pace back. Expect the Colts running game to look more like XLI than the second half of the 2007 season. Here is what I expect Rhodes' stats to look like.

585 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns, 197 receiving yards, 19 receptions, 0 receiving touchdowns.

Mike Hart

The Colts don't usually do sexy picks. The Colts don't have a Heisman winner on their roster. Gonzalez was Ted Ginn's understudy. Addai was unknown compared to LenDale White, who was passed on in favor of Joseph. Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson were role players for great defenses. However, Hart is the Heisman contending, big name from a big school stud the Colts haven't drafted in a long, long time.

Hart was a big name back who just fell down draft boards. Division 1-AA players were taken ahead of him. No names went before him. Finding hidden gems has become more important than drafting proven studs.

Hart will make the roster over Kenton Keith. Keith is a determined blocker, and he can receive out of the backfield. Keith has butter fingers and is a nonfactor blocking. Hart never fumbles the ball, so he will be valuable in close games. I expect him to get 15% of the carries next year, and I also expect his stats to look like this.

270 yards, 3 rushing touchdowns, 242 receiving yards, 14 receptions, 3 receiving touchdowns.

The Roster Cuts

Here are a list of players I do not expect to make the roster.

Kenton Keith, Luke Lawton, Chad Simpson, Clift Dawson, Justise Hairston.

Keith will end missing the cut, and I do not see him sticking around on the practice squad. He knows he can play somewhere else. Let him. I could see Detroit, Kansas City, or Arizona pursuing Keith. Keith played well this season, but his arrest and more importantly, his drop in the San Diego game, cost him his job.

Luke Lawton is a fairly popular player with the Colts. However, the Colts don't need a fullback. The H-back takes the place of a fullback. Santi and Tamme will take up the roster spot normally given to the fullback. Lawton can find a job on another team. Minnesota and San Diego are both in need of a fullback. They could come calling. If not, there is always the Arena League, where his style prospers in the backfield.

Simpson is my surprise pick for the practice squad. Not only is he an accomplished runner, but he can return kicks as well. For the Colts, that can make or break who gets a roster spot. Simpson will be on the practice squad, and if there is an injury in the backfield or special teams, he will be ready to step up.

Dawson and Hairston both have the same problem. A lack of talent. Both look like they will have to act upon their college degrees or else try the CFL. I don't see them as NFL players.

So to recap, here is the current Colts roster after 2 positional "Looking Forwards"

QB
Peyton Manning
Adam Tafralis
Practice Squad
Jim Sorgi

RB
Joseph Addai
Dominic Rhodes
Mike Hart
Practice Squad
Chad Simpson

Guess Who's Back

Al Davis did the Colts a big favor by drafting Darren McFadden. Dominic Rhodes became the odd man out in Oakland behind McFadden, Justin Fargas, Lamont Jordan, and Michael Bush. Now, Rhodes is going to be wearing blue again.

As reported by Adam Schefter, Roto World and Stampede Blue, the Indianapolis Colts are very close to a deal with Dominic Rhodes to be Joseph Addai's complement back.

Here is what Rhodes did in his 5 healthy years in Indy:

550 carries, 2,274 yards, 4.1 yards per carry, 649 receiving yards, 20 total touchdowns, 13 fumbles.

The 20 total touchdowns is great for a player who was backup up Edgerrin James for three years. Rhodes will most likely be used in goal line situations where he can power his way through the line. Addai was pretty weak in the red zone last year, so Rhodes will be a great addition. Since the Colts don't have a Randy Moss-like receiver, a goal line back is the next best thing for redzone situations.

Yes, the Colts did draft Mike Hart, but he will still get some carries, and most importantly, he will have two Super Bowl-winning running backs mentoring him along the way. Kenton Keith can pack up his stuff. He's out of here.

This is what I think the carries will look like next year for the backs.

Joseph Addai: 16 carries per game
Dominic Rhodes: 10 carries per game
Mike Hart: 4 carries per game

Sure, this will most likely change depending on Mike Hart's progression or lack there of, but this could be one of the best backfields in the league. Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, the G-men, and Minnesota better watch out. The Colts are gaining on them.

Colts Roster Update

QB
Peyton Manning
Jim Sorgi

RB
Joseph Addai
Dominic Rhodes
Mike Hart

WR
Marvin Harrison
Reggie Wayne
Anthony Gonzalez
Roy Hall
Pierre Garcon

TE
Dallas Clark
Jacob Tamme
Tom Santi

LT
Tony Ugoh
Michael Toudouze

LG
Ryan Lilja
Jamey Richard

C
Jeff Saturday
Steve Justice

RG
Mike Pollack
Charlie Johnson

RT
Ryan Diem
Dan Federkiel

DE
Dwight Freeney
Robert Mathis
Josh Thomas
Marcus Howard
Curtis Johnson

DT
Ed Johnson
Raheem Brock
Quinn Pitcock
Darrell Reid
Keyunta Dawson
Colin Ferrell

OLB
Tyjuan Hagler
Freddy Keiaho
Clint Session
Ramon Guzman

MLB
Gary Brackett
Philip Wheeler

CB
Marlin Jackson
Kelvin Hayden
Tim Jennings
Dante Hughes
Michael Coe

FS
Antoine Bethea
Matt Giordano
Brandon Condren

SS
Bob Sanders
Jamie Silva

K
Adam Vinatieri

P
Hunter Smith

LS
Justin Snow

Practice Squad
QB Josh Betts
RB Kenton Keith
WR Sam Giguere
OT Darren Marquez
DT Eric Foster
LB Brandon Foster
CB Melvin BullittC
B Brandon Foster

On Stand-by
WR Devin Aromashodu
RB Luke Lawton
DE Jeff Charleston
LB Brandon Archer
CB Keiwan Ratliff

Colts in Canton?

Since the Hall of Fame committee decided who would get in (congrats to Art Monk, Darrell Green, Andre Tippett, Fred Dean, Emmitt Thomas, and Gary Zimmerman), it brought up discussion of who will get in later on in the future. The Colts are one of the most talented teams in the league, and it looks like they will have many future Hall of Famers. Eric Dickerson is the only Indianapolis Colt in the Hall of Fame, but he will be joined by many. Who will it be? Well, let's just see what my elaborate star system says.

Here's the system. Six stars are locks. If they retired today, they would be in for sure. Five stars are a few improvements in a statistical categories, but they will definitely get in barring injuries or trouble with the law. Four stars have had a great career, but need to have very solid years for the rest of his career. Three stars have to step it up and become Pro Bowlers for the majority of the rest of his career. After I rank the veterans, I will do the rankings for the young players. I will just use "In" and "On the Bubble" to measure their chances.

****** (6): Peyton Manning, Adam Vinatieri, Marvin Harrison, Tony Dungy- Peyton Manning has played 10 years. He is averaging more than 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns a season. If he plays eight more years as he intends, he will definitely break every notable passing record. He's a lock even if he retires today. Adam Vinatieri has won 2 Super Bowls on his feet. He is the most clutch kicker in NFL history, and he has been a starter on 5 Super Bowl teams, an amazing stat. He'll get in without a doubt.

Marvin Harrison may end his career coming close or breaking some of Jerry Rice's records. He's been very consistent over his long career, and he hasn't had many injuries until this past year. If his knee can recover, he will add onto his illustrious career. Dungy is the best regular season coach of the 21st century. He has led the Colts to 6 straight playoff births and 5 straight AFC South titles and 12 win seasons. Dungy added a Super Bowl ring to his resume, assuring him of being a Hall of Famer. Being the first black head coach to win a Super Bowl didn't hurt either.

***** (5): Dwight Freeney & Reggie Wayne: Freeney and Wayne are two draft picks that make Bill Polian a genius. Many of the Colts starters have been drafted on the second day or even signed as an undrafted rookie, but these two first-rounders have lived up to their pick. Freeney gets consistent pressure on the QB, and he normally hurries the QB into bad throws. Reggie Wayne came on strong when Marvin Harrison got hurt, and he only needs three or four more good years (1000 yards & 8 touchdowns) to become a lock.

**** (4): Bob Sanders, Jeff Saturday, Dallas Clark: Bob Sanders is the superstar, Clark is the X-factor on offense, and Jeff Saturday is the superstar offensive lineman. Sanders has had injury problems, but it is hard to deny that he does the most with less. He is under 6 feet, I tower over him, but he could kill me with one spear tackle. He won the Defensive Player of the Year last year, and if he can stay healthy, there's a good shot he can win it again. Jeff Saturday has made the All-Pro team 3 straight years, and he anchors the line. Dallas Clark had 11 touchdown catches this year, and when he doesn't drop balls, he is making big plays.

*** (3): Gary Brackett, Robert Mathis, Anthony McFarland: Gary Brackett is the leader of the defense, and he has had 3 good years, but he needs to be a Pro Bowler and have 110 tackles and 2 interceptions for the rest of his career. Mathis is very good, but he has been living in the shadow of Dwight Freeney and does not get much recognition. Booger McFarland's injury hurt his chances, but he has been a solid lineman and has been on 2 Super Bowl-winning teams.

Since the young players have not played enough to be considered, I will base it on the pace they have started at. These players have 2 or 3 years experience.

In: Joseph Addai & Antoine Bethea-Addai has 2842 yards from scrimmage and 23 total touchdowns. He is definitely on a good pace. Bethea will play in his first Pro Bowl this year, and he is a great ball-hawking safety. He's compiled 5 interceptions and 12 batted balls over his two years.

Bubble: Marlin Jackson & Kelvin Hayden-It's hard to separate the two. They both play the same style and have the same role in the defense. If one gets in, the other will. Right now, they will need to improve to become Pro Bowlers, but they have been very good, especially in big games.

I may have overshot some of these, but it is very easy to get into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Hopefully I can come back to this in 15 years and see that all of these guys are in the Hall of Fame. Probably not, but a man can dream can't he?

Hey...I've Seen This Before!

C'mon Colts. I mean, I know you were having trouble following up the Super Bowl win, but don't recycle material. The Colts losing in the playoffs? Seen it. One and done seems to be a growing trend for the Colts. Sometimes the breaks are bad, but this time, it was the other team who had the injury problem. LaDanian Tomlinson went down with a knee injury. Phillip Rivers was hurt due to, well, sucking. He wasn't even touched, and it's FieldTurf. Of course, this injury is a benefit. Phillip Rivers is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. We know that Antonio Gates was hurt, and Lorenzo Neal missed the game. The Colts had everyone not on injured reserve in this game. It is amazing that they lost to such an undermanned team. It shows motivation. Last year, the Colts had no motivation. They were just a normal team. Guess what. They won it all. In 2005, they could have played for the Dungy family. They lost to a Steelers team that was just not as talented. The Colts don't respond well to motivation. I know it's weird, but it's true. Next year, the Colts can hope for NOTHING. They don't need any trouble with the coaches. They don't need high expectations. They need NOTHING. However, there are more outrageous reasons why the Colts lost. Little patterns I have noticed that are a coincidence.

The Year After

Last year, the Colts were coming off of a disappointing year where they were the number one seed in the AFC. They won it all the next year. Eh. That's just once. Or is it. When the Colts lost even when they had home field advantage, the Steelers beat them on their amazing run to the Super Bowl. The year before, they went 15-1 in Ben Roethlisberger's first year. This is a trend that has been going on for a while. The Patriots had the best record in the AFC in 2003, and they won the championship in 2004. However, the Patriots did win the championship in 2003, which is a snag in the pattern. In recent history, this seems to be more than a coincidence. The Chargers were 14-2 last year, and maybe they are on a mission. If the Chargers would somehow win it all, this would have to be mentioned in the main stream media. 4 times in 5 years? That would be too much to ignore.

Football Gods

I don't know who the football gods are, but they must have decided that one was enough for the Colts. I know every team has injuries and blah, blah, blah, but the Colts were without Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Tony Ugoh, Ryan Diem, Robert Mathis, Raheem Brock, Dwight Freeney, Rob Morris, Tyjuan Hagler, Freddie Keiaho, Antoine Bethea, Tim Jennings, Dante Hughes, and Bob Sanders at some point in the year. I would like to see the Patriots win a game without Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, Ben Watson, Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Richard Seymour, Michael Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi, and Vince Wilfork for a road game. That's what the Colts had to deal with against the Chargers. Sure, it didn't mean anything in the playoffs, but what about momentum. You can't continue to build momentum when everyone is missing games. This showed in the playoffs. The Chargers did not have very many injuries until the playoffs. They had the momentum. The football gods decided that the regular season wasn't enough. They needed for Joseph Addai, Kenton Keith, Jake Scott, Reggie Wayne, and Bob Sanders to get banged up. The football gods show no mercy.

DO NOT REST THE STARTERS!

This may not be a reason why they lost, but it is a reason why they didn't win. Let me elaborate. The Giants and Chargers are not the best teams in the league, but they are on a roll and in their conference championships. You know why. They played their starters. Eli Manning is on fire, and the Chargers defense is unstoppable. They didn't rest their starters. This is a simple reason why the Chargers dominated the Colts yesterday.

I have nothing left to say but, Super Bowl XLIII here we come!

He's Back!!!

For most of the Colts' season, they have been out of the national media. They haven't been chasing an undefeated season. They haven't had a player with an outburst or controversy. Yesterday, that changed with some great news about Marvin Harrison.

Marvin Harrison has been a Colt since 1996 and before this year, had only missed 3 games all year long. Against the Broncos, the usually consistent Harrison went down with a bruised knee on a freak accident. When Joseph Addai ran to the right, he was tackled right next to Harrison, who was blocking for the second-year running back. When Addai went down, he landed on Harrison's knee. After seeing the highlights, the outlook was not good. He went down awkwardly and looked to be in a lot of pain. However, the bruised knee was much better than what most would have thought. Everyone would have assumed that a bruise couldn't keep Harrison out too long, but that was not the case.

Harrison sat out the next game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After the bye week, Harrison made an appearance against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It appeared that his knee injury was gone, but something must have gone wrong. Nine weeks went by. There was speculation that the injury was much worse, and he may never put on a Colts uniform again. Colts fans were ready to move on with this season. Now, after two days of full practices, Marvin is ready to play in the regular season finale against the Tennessee Titans.

Marvin Harrison is the greatest receiver in Colts history. He is a definite first ballot Hall of Famer. He may not make the biggest impact on the field, but the Colts need another target. With Harrison back for the playoffs, Peyton Manning now has his favorite receiver back in time to play the stingy defense they are bound to face in the AFC Divisional Round. They are either going to play San Diego, Pittsburgh, or Jacksonville. For those teams, they need everyone they can get.

With Marvin in the game, the Colts do not have to use Dallas Clark in the slot like they did last year in the playoffs and for most of this year. With Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark will now be covered mainly by linebackers. As he has proved time and time again, linebackers can't cut it against him. Work in Ben Utecht, Bryan Fletcher, and Joseph Addai in the passing game, and they are right up there with the Patriots.

What will this mean in the playoffs? This changes everything for the Colts offense and the opponent's defense. The Colts now have three wide receivers that Peyton has a strong connection with. As he proved in the San Diego game, backup receivers do not work well with Peyton. Craphonso Thorpe and Devin Aromashodu are not going to cut it with number 18. Marvin Harrison and Peyton Manning are the greatest QB-WR duo in the history of the NFL. Harrison coming back changes the entire playoff landscape.

Sit 'Em or Start 'Em?

The Colts have locked up the division and bye week. This Tennessee game only matters to the Titans. If the Colts lose, bummer. If they win, great. The Colts do not need this game. However, it will be important to keep everyone healthy and rested for the playoff game. This will involve sitting players at the right time and playing others in the right places. This is how I would run this team if I were Coach Dungy.

Peyton Manning has been the key to this team's success over the past 10 years. He is already fourth in touchdown passes for a career, and he will break almost every major passing record over the next seven or eight years. They cannot risk him getting injured. Peyton should play the entire first quarter and maybe the first series in the second. In week 2, the Titans got good pressure on Peyton. The Colts can't risk him going down. If he plays the first quarter, the Colts should be able to score 14 points which may be enough to stay in this game.

Joseph Addai should not get more than five carries. Addai is getting banged up badly. He appeared to hurt his ankle against Houston to go along with a back and shoulder injury. Kenton Keith should be able to do well enough to keep the Colts in this game.

For the receivers, Wayne should play the whole game. He is a very safe player like most Colts receivers. He does not take big hits when he can help it. His chances of getting injured should not be very high. Gonzalez can play in some places, but he did bruise his foot last week. Maybe 15 snaps for him. He is inexperienced. I would also like to see a Marvin Harrison appearance, even if it is only for one snap.

Dallas Clark should play the entire game. I would, however, avoid sending him over the middle. He seems to be getting hit harder than any other Colt. He has to play in the playoff game. Ben Utecht has been getting banged up the past two weeks. No need to play him. Bryan Fletcher should get good playing time against Tennessee.

The offensive line should get regular playing time. No one is truly hurt besides Ryan Diem, but he will probably not play at all. The offensive line needs to protect whomever is playing. They can't let anyone get injured.

The defensive line should be the same as it has been over the past two weeks. Robert Mathis and Raheem Brock can have another week to rest their injuries. Keyunta Dawson, Dan Klecko, and Quinn Pitcock will be able to get some well needed experience. Dawson and Pitcock are both rookies, so any experience is good.

The linebackers should play like it was a regular game. Tyjuan Hagler, Rocky Boiman, Clint Session, Freddie Keaiho, and Gary Brackett all should get their normal playing time. They do not have any injuries, and no one should expect them to get injured.

The defensive backs will also stay the same as last week. Antoine Bethea should not play. He is too vital to this secondary for him to miss a game against a good quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger or David Garrard. Everyone else, however, should get good playing time.

Overall, the offensive stars should see less snaps than they would on a normal game. This Colts defense should be able to shut down a bad Tennessee offense. The offense needs to score around 24 points to win. Even with the backups in, that is more than likely. This strategy should be able to keep the stars healthy and clicking for their playoff game most likely against Pittsburgh or San Diego.