Looking Forward to 2008: Running Backs

The Running back position was a bit of a concern coming into this offseason. Joseph Addai struggled big time at the end of the year, and Kenton Keith got arrested. However, the Colts have completely changed that around, and now running back may be the best position on the roster. Here is the rundown on the running back position for the 2008 Indianapolis Colts

Joseph Addai

Addai is coming off of a Pro Bowl year where he started out as an elite running back and ended as a mediocre one. After his amazing game against the Patriots, he faltered due to injuries on the offensive line and wear and tear on the body. However, now he has a great supporting cast around him, and he is ready to destroy the competition.

Joseph Addai had 704 yards in his first 7 games. In the last 8, he had 368. The teams he played against in the second half were not much better than the ones the Colts played in the first half. Addai is one of the most talented backs in the league with a perfect combination of power and speed. That goes well with his pass catching ability and goal line running.

Addai took 58% of the team's carries. That is too much for a player who has never been the main back. For a good comparison of what should be expected of the Colts rushing game next year, look no further than the Minnesota Vikings.

Adrian Peterson took 48% of the team's total caries. Chester Taylor took 31%. That has to be the Colts. Give Joseph Addai 48% of the carries and give Dominic Rhodes 31%. Mike Hart can take the other 21% or split it with Luke Lawton or Kenton Keith. With this carry split, this is what I expect Joseph Addai's stats to look like.

1064 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns, 426 receiving yards, 37 receptions, 1 receiving touchdown

Dominic Rhodes

Yes, he is back, and I could not be more excited. I will admit it. I was not a Dominic Rhodes fan at all when he played here. However, it was unnatural for him not to be in a Colts uniform last year. Part of the team was missing when he was gone. Now, he is entering his prime, and this will be his best year of his career.

Dominic Rhodes will make the roster this year. There is no doubt in my mind. The media and fans have been assuming that he is involved in the running back competition. He's not. Rhodes is going to play second-fiddle to Addai, like he did in the 2007 playoffs. I expect Rhodes to put up similar numbers to his playoff stats.

Rhodes, the hero of Super Bowl XLI, is getting the veteran's minimum, and he will earn every penny. Rhodes will be great as a change of pace back. Expect the Colts running game to look more like XLI than the second half of the 2007 season. Here is what I expect Rhodes' stats to look like.

585 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns, 197 receiving yards, 19 receptions, 0 receiving touchdowns.

Mike Hart

The Colts don't usually do sexy picks. The Colts don't have a Heisman winner on their roster. Gonzalez was Ted Ginn's understudy. Addai was unknown compared to LenDale White, who was passed on in favor of Joseph. Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson were role players for great defenses. However, Hart is the Heisman contending, big name from a big school stud the Colts haven't drafted in a long, long time.

Hart was a big name back who just fell down draft boards. Division 1-AA players were taken ahead of him. No names went before him. Finding hidden gems has become more important than drafting proven studs.

Hart will make the roster over Kenton Keith. Keith is a determined blocker, and he can receive out of the backfield. Keith has butter fingers and is a nonfactor blocking. Hart never fumbles the ball, so he will be valuable in close games. I expect him to get 15% of the carries next year, and I also expect his stats to look like this.

270 yards, 3 rushing touchdowns, 242 receiving yards, 14 receptions, 3 receiving touchdowns.

The Roster Cuts

Here are a list of players I do not expect to make the roster.

Kenton Keith, Luke Lawton, Chad Simpson, Clift Dawson, Justise Hairston.

Keith will end missing the cut, and I do not see him sticking around on the practice squad. He knows he can play somewhere else. Let him. I could see Detroit, Kansas City, or Arizona pursuing Keith. Keith played well this season, but his arrest and more importantly, his drop in the San Diego game, cost him his job.

Luke Lawton is a fairly popular player with the Colts. However, the Colts don't need a fullback. The H-back takes the place of a fullback. Santi and Tamme will take up the roster spot normally given to the fullback. Lawton can find a job on another team. Minnesota and San Diego are both in need of a fullback. They could come calling. If not, there is always the Arena League, where his style prospers in the backfield.

Simpson is my surprise pick for the practice squad. Not only is he an accomplished runner, but he can return kicks as well. For the Colts, that can make or break who gets a roster spot. Simpson will be on the practice squad, and if there is an injury in the backfield or special teams, he will be ready to step up.

Dawson and Hairston both have the same problem. A lack of talent. Both look like they will have to act upon their college degrees or else try the CFL. I don't see them as NFL players.

So to recap, here is the current Colts roster after 2 positional "Looking Forwards"

QB
Peyton Manning
Adam Tafralis
Practice Squad
Jim Sorgi

RB
Joseph Addai
Dominic Rhodes
Mike Hart
Practice Squad
Chad Simpson

A Look Forward to 2008: Quarterbacks

Quarterback. It's been a position of no need for the Colts since 1998. There haven't been QB races in training camp or injuries to worry about. Peyton Manning's backups are seen as often as Ryan Leaf or Jeff George. However, Peyton does not have more than 10 years left, and that is being generous. If there would be a problem with Peyton, who would step up? Well, here is a rundown of the quarterback position for the Indianapolis Colts.

Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning is entering his 11th season in the NFL and on the Indianapolis Colts. Manning has never missed a start in his NFL career, and he has only missed one play because of injury. Over his career, Peyton has put up some of the top numbers of the decade, broken multiple records, and won multiple awards. Manning has been to 8 Pro Bowls, has been All-Pro 6 times, MVP twice, and the Pro Bowl MVP and Super Bowl MVP once.

Peyton Manning is coming off of a great season when you look at whom he had. He was missing Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez for a large portion of the season, and Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, and Ben Utecht also missed games this year. Now, Peyton will have his full arsenal and is looking to lead the Colts offense back to the top of the NFL rankings.

Last year, the Colts had 4 losses with Peyton playing 4 quarters in three of them. Those three games were against teams who have a 3-4 defense. In those games, Peyton threw 9 interceptions and had a 63% completion percentage. This season, the Colts play four teams who have some sort of a 3-4 defense: The Browns, Steelers, Patriots, and Chargers. Last year, the Browns defense was inept, and they didn't do much to change that. The Steelers with Mike Tomlin are transitioning to a 4-3 Tampa 2 defense, but they still have players who were drafted and signed for the 3-4 defense. The Patriots defense is still old, but they did draft multiple defensive players. The Chargers defense did not change at all this offseason.

The Colts play 3 games against top 5 defenses (Steelers, Patriots, Chargers), 5 more games against defenses ranked 6-10 (Titans x2, Jaguars x2, Packers), 1 defense ranked 11-15 (Vikings), 1 ranked 16-20 (Bears), 5 against defenses ranked 21-25 (Texans x2, Browns, Ravens, Bengals), and 1 game against the league's worst defense (Lions). The Colts have a tough schedule, but the passing defenses for these teams are not as good, as only the Steelers, Patriots, and Titans have top 10 pass defenses. The Lions, Bengals, Vikings, Bears, Ravens, Browns, and Texans all have pass defenses ranked 20th or lower.
My Stat Prediction for Manning: 66.4% completion percentage, 35 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions, 17 sacks, 4305 passing yards, 104.5 passer Rating

Jim SorgiJim Sorgi has been the resident bench warmer for the Colts since 2004. However, his job is in jeopardy. The Colts are not happy about his performance last year in the Tennessee game. This year will be his first year in a while when his job is truly in jeopardy. As you can see by the picture above, he has even picked up a second job as a Maytag repairman just in case he gets cut.
Sorgi last year had a 68.3 passer rating in the Tennessee game. Previous to Sorgi coming in, Manning was tearing apart that defense. Sure, Sorgi was throwing to Devin Aromashodu and Craphonso Thorpe, but could he really keep this team in the playoff hunt if Manning got hurt? I didn't think so. The Colts are going to give Josh Betts and Adam Tafralis a chance, and they could try to sign or trade for someone else. Chris Simms could be a possible trade option. The only decent free agents left are Dante Culpepper and Kelly Holcomb. I think Sorgi will have to play very well this preseason to keep his job. Adam Tafralis could get the job, and Betts has as much experience in the system as Sorgi.

Chance of Keeping Job: 50%

Stats If He Does Keep Job: 53.3% completion percentage, 0 touchdown passes, 1 interception, 2 sacks, 102 passing yards, 46.8 passer rating

Josh Betts

Betts has never played in a regular season NFL game. Not once. However, he has had that number 9 jersey since 2006, when he was first signed as an undrafted free agent and has been cut and signed to the practice squad twice. He has been a preseason player since he left Miami of Ohio, where he is second on the career list for pass completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. In the 2007 preseason, he had 3 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 356 passing yards, and a 60% completion percentage against the Cowboys, Bears, and Bengals.

Chance of Making Roster: 20%
Stats If He Does Make The Roster: 46% completion percentage, 0 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 142 passing yards, 0 sacks, 60.6 passer rating

Adam Tafralis

The Colts signed an undrafted free agent out of San Jose State, and he has a great chance of making the roster. Adam Tafralis had a great junior and senior year for the Spartans. Last year, he threw 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The year before that he threw 21 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Lack of competition is the obvious concern, but last year he played great against Kansas State, and the year before that he destroyed the Washington defense. Tafralis also has pretty good legs and ran for 405 yards in the past two years. Tafralis has a quick delivery, but his lack of height is a problem. I think he should be Peyton's backup for 2008.

Chance of Making Roster: 20%
Stats If He Does Make Roster: 60% completion percentage, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 180 yards, 74.3 passer rating

If I was Dungy, my QB roster would look like this

53 man
#18 Peyton Manning
#15 Adam Tafralis

Practice Squad
#12 Jim Sorgi

Looking Forward to 2008: Special Teams

In 2007, special teams was one of the biggest problems for the Colts. It cost the Colts the first Chargers games, and it wasn't helpful in the 2007 Playoffs Super Bowl run. The Colts haven't had a great returner since Brad Pyatt, who had his career ended by injury. The kickoff coverage is mediocre outside of Darrell Reid. The punt coverage is better than the kickoff coverage because of the team speed, but it still is not where it should be. Well, this is a whole new year, and the Colts have drafted and signed players who could completely revamp the coverage and return games. The Colts may have been anemic in the return game and incompetent in coverage last year, but next year will be different.





Kickoff Coverage





The Colts had a bunch of stupid mistakes last year covering kickoffs. There were multiple offsides penalties and missed tackles. However, the Colts have made some moves with personnel that will make this team one of the premier coverage squads in the NFL.





This offseason, the Colts kept their current special teams stars and then drafted and signed some players with potential to be stars. Darrell Reid, the man who almost killed Chris Henry, and Matt Giordano resigned with the Colts. With those two, the Colts have a great cornerstone for a strong special teams. However, the other 7 coverage men all were subpar. Here is the lineup I would use.





Michael Coe and Matt Giordano are the gunners. These are two of the fastest players on the team, and they should be able to keep the returner from making it to the outside.





Darrell Reid is the wedge breaker. He is big and normally one of the first defenders down the field. He is a Pro Bowl-caliber special teamer.





The other two players on the outside are Jamie Silva and Roy Hall. I would like to keep Hall away from special teams after his shoulder injury, but he is too fast and too big to be on the sidelines on kickoffs.





The five other defenders that I would send out would be Philip Wheeler, Colin Farrell, Brandon Archer, Curtis Johnson, and Ramon Guzman.



With this setup, this is how the kickoff formation would look like:



MC JS PW BA CF AV DR CJ RG RH MG



With this lineup, the Colts will have two of the fastest players in the league in Coe and Giordano being able to shut down the outside. Darrell Reid could very easily be another Colts Pro Bowler this upcoming year. The big defenders are also giants, and the linebackers are solid tacklers.



Kickoff Returns



Since Brad Pyatt's neck injury, there hasn't been a dynamic Colts returner in ages. In the sixth round, a Division III player became the next Colts returner.



Pierre Garcon is the ideal returner for this team. First, he will not play a big role on Sundays when Peyton is on the field. At most he will be a fourth receiver if Marvin is suspended or still injured. Secondly, he is one of the most explosive returners I have seen highlights of. Most would think Joshua Cribbs got put in a Mount Union jersey and starting returning kicks on Pop Warner teams. That's how good he has looked. I don't think there is a question who will be returning punts this year.



However, we have seen returners come and go. Brad Pyatt hurt his neck. Terrence Wilkins became too old. TJ Rushing is now expendable. To be safe in case of a freak injury, the Colts have backup returners. Sam Giguere is a probable practice squad player who could be a quality returner some day. Rudy Burgess and Charles Dillon both were returners in college, and they could be signed to the 53 man roster if Garcon and Giguere would be injured. Speed is never a concern for the Colts.



Here is a Pierre Garcon kick return highlight for those who don't believe how good this kid can be.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvzTkNIVEj0


Convinced? I think most Colts fans are, and more importantly, Bill Polian is.


Punt Coverage


The punt coverage and kickoff coverage teams should look similar. Matt Giordano and Michael Coe will be gunners. Coe is not as solid of a tackler as one may want for gunner, but he is as fast as any player on this team. Giordano combines speed and tackling to make an unstoppable gunner. I would like to see the players I listed on my kickoff coverage being on there as well. Philip Wheeler, Curtis Johnson, and Brandon Archer are all solid tacklers who would not let big plays happen.

Punt Return

I think we all know that Garcon will be the returner, but who will be on the line? Last year, Michael Coe made a great block in the Baltimore game. I think he and Giordano should be on the outside to go for the blocks. On the inside, I would like to see big bodies like Quinn Pitcock, Ed Johnson, and Josh Thomas in the middle. Also, an offensive lineman like Jamey Richard wouldn't hurt either for blocking. To drop back and block, linebackers like Tyjuan Hagler and Philip Wheeler would help. With this, they could get some good returns. However, I think we do not have the best blockers for returns, which is why we have had minimal success returning punts.

This is my preseason overview of the special teams. It's mostly guesses, because we don't even know the roster yet. But this is what I think it will look like.